For the threshold test, CRA looks at net tax owing — roughly tax payable after non-refundable credits and after amounts already withheld or paid, not your entire tax before withholdings. A high-income employee with enough T4 withholding can owe little or nothing at filing and never hit the instalment threshold.
Use your Notices of Assessment for prior years and a realistic estimate for the current year. The official Calculation chart for instalment payments walks line-by-line through tax, credits, withholdings, then adds CPP payable and voluntary EI to get the total instalment base used for prior-year and current-year options.
Self-employed CPP (and voluntary EI) are not part of “net tax owing” for the threshold test, but they are added when you calculate how much to pay under the prior-year or current-year options.