Career Path Simulator 2026
Free career path simulator: project your salary 5–15 years ahead with non-linear growth curves, FAANG vs non-tech benchmarks, skill premiums, promotion probability, job-hopping, management track, and relocation — all after federal, state, and FICA taxes.
By Sammy S. · Founder · AuthorUpdated for 2026
Four career paths
BLS tenure: 3.5 yr private · 4.8 yr prof.
Set your starting point
Enter base salary, career level (L1–L8), years of experience, industry benchmark, and any skill premium. Add current annual equity vest and your state for taxes.
Choose a career path
Pick stay at company, job hop every 2–3 years, management track, or relocate to a new state. Each path uses different promotion, hop, and COL rules.
Tune probability & timing
Set promotion probability, hop interval, management switch year, or relocate year/state. Adjust stock growth % and projection horizon (5–15 years).
Compare & revisit
Read year-by-year after-tax income, milestone cards, and the multi-path chart. Toggle 'compare all paths' to see stay vs hop vs management vs relocate side by side.
Starting point
Switch every 2–3 years — 10-year outlook
Year 1: $105,214 · Year 5: $153,690 · Total 10yr: $1,972,591
Year 1
$105,214
Current role
Year 3
$161,583
Job switch → L4
Year 5
$153,690
L4 — year 2
After-tax salary projection
Switch every 2–3 years — year-by-year
After-tax| Year | Level | Gross | After-tax | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | L3 | $155,384 | $105,214 | Current role |
| Year 2 | L3 | $156,584 | $105,907 | L3 — year 2 |
| Year 3 | L4 | $251,249 | $161,583 | Job switch → L4 · New equity grant (L4) · Sign-on bonus |
| Year 4 | L4 | $233,636 | $151,887 | L4 — year 1 |
| Year 5 | L4 | $236,911 | $153,690 | L4 — year 2 |
| Year 6 | L5 | $372,926 | $225,548 | Job switch → L5 · New equity grant (L5) · Sign-on bonus |
| Year 7 | L5 | $351,790 | $214,547 | L5 — year 1 |
| Year 8 | L5 | $358,772 | $218,181 | L5 — year 2 |
| Year 9 | L6 | $567,367 | $323,940 | Job switch → L6 · New equity grant (L6) · Sign-on bonus |
| Year 10 | L6 | $543,698 | $312,094 | L6 — year 1 |
All paths — 10-year after-tax total
Stay at company
$1,777,270
Y1 $105,214 → Y5 $153,000
Switch every 2–3 years
$1,972,591
Y1 $105,214 → Y5 $153,690
Management track
$2,065,396
Y1 $105,214 → Y5 $212,336
Relocate (new state)
$1,784,682
Y1 $105,214 → Y5 $154,159
Why career salaries are not linear — and what BLS data shows
Linear salary calculators assume a fixed annual raise (e.g. 3% forever). Real careers move in steps: promotions, job switches, equity refreshes, and senior-level plateaus. BLS wage data shows wide dispersion — software developers at the 90th percentile earned $211,450 in May 2024 vs $103,050 at the 25th percentile — so a single growth rate cannot represent FAANG, mid-tech, and non-tech paths.
BLS software developer wages (May 2024)
Median $133,080 · 25th percentile $103,050 · 75th $169,000 · 90th $211,450. BLS OEWS reports cash wages from employers. Large tech total comp often exceeds these percentiles because of RSU grants taxed at vest (IRC §83). Our L3–L5 bands are calibrated above BLS p75–p90 for mid/senior tech roles; non-tech benchmark aligns closer to national medians.
Career ladder bands (L1–L8)
Level bands anchor non-linear growth. Promotions apply TypicalPromoRaisePct; job hops jump toward the next level's market base. Bands are calibrated above BLS cash percentiles for mid/senior tech; customize by entering your actual salary.
| Level | Typical base | Promo raise | Bonus % | Equity (4-yr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 | $80,000 | +22% | 8% | $20,000 |
| L2 | $112,000 | +20% | 9% | $35,000 |
| L3 | $148,000 | +18% | 10% | $60,000 |
| L4 | $195,000 | +15% | 12% | $130,000 |
| L5 | $275,000 | +13% | 15% | $220,000 |
| L6 | $390,000 | +10% | 18% | $360,000 |
| L7 | $530,000 | +8% | 20% | $520,000 |
| L8 | $660,000 | +6% | 22% | $750,000 |
Industry & skill benchmarks
| Industry | Salary × | Equity × | Merit % |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAANG / Big Tech | 1.28× | 1.35× | 4% |
| Mid-size Tech | 1× | 1× | 3.5% |
| Non-tech Corporate | 0.82× | 0.32× | 3% |
| Startup (Series B+) | 0.9× | 1.55× | 2.5% |
| Skill | Premium |
|---|---|
| ML / AI +12% market premium | +12% |
| Cloud / DevOps +6% infrastructure premium | +6% |
| Tech Leadership +8% lead / architect premium | +8% |
Job hopping & employee tenure (BLS)
The BLS Employee Tenure Summary (January 2024) reports median tenure of 3.5 years for private-sector wage and salary workers, and 4.8 years for management, professional, and related occupations. Workers ages 25–34 had median tenure of 2.7 years. A 2–3 year job-hop interval in this simulator aligns with published tenure patterns — not an arbitrary assumption.
Private sector median tenure
3.5 years
Professional occupations
4.8 years
Hop interval in simulator
2 or 3 years (user choice)
Worked example: default inputs
Default example: L3, $120K base, mid-tech, ML skill, CA single, 10-year horizon. Numbers below are computed by the engine — not estimates.
| Path | Year 1 after-tax | Year 5 after-tax | 10-yr cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stay at company | $114,944 | $165,648 | $1,916,857 |
| Job hop (3-yr) | $114,944 | $166,419 | $2,128,457 |
| Management track | $114,944 | $229,795 | $2,227,952 |
Job-hop year 3: $175,540 — Job switch → L4 · New equity grant (L4) · Sign-on bonus
Example career paths: stay vs hop vs management
Job hoppingThe L3 job hopper: switch every 3 years vs staying loyal
Setup: L3 engineer, $120K base entered, 5 YOE, mid-size tech, ML skill premium, California single filer, 55% promo probability, 8% stock growth. Default inputs above.
Verdict: Over 10 years, job hopping wins on cumulative after-tax income in the default example — but year-5 snapshots can still favor stay when promos land. Compare all four paths; lower promo probability or a 2-year hop interval widens the hop advantage.
BLS median tenure is 3.5 years in the private sector — your hop interval should reflect realistic mobility, not optimism.
Industry benchmarkSame level, different industry: FAANG vs non-tech corporate
Setup: L4 senior engineer, $195K base, 8 YOE. Run the same stay path twice — FAANG benchmark (1.28× salary, 1.35× equity) vs non-tech (0.82×, 0.32×). BLS 90th percentile for software developers was $211,450 cash in May 2024.
Verdict: Industry selection shifts the entire curve. Non-tech paths plateau earlier and carry minimal equity; FAANG/big-tech paths sustain higher vest values. BLS median cash ($133K) is closer to non-tech modeled bands than FAANG.
Use industry benchmark before comparing strategies — level labels alone don't capture employer pay bands.
Management trackIC vs management: pivot to EM in year 4
Setup: L4 IC, mid-tech, default example with management path. Management switch year 4. 10-yr management total: $2,227,952; Y5 after-tax: $229,795.
Verdict: Management track is not automatically higher — it depends on level, industry, and promo timing. In the default example, management leads stay on 10-year cumulative after-tax.
Set management switch year to when you'd realistically interview for EM roles, not when you're 'thinking about it.'
How equity & relocation affect after-tax projections
Equity modeled as ordinary income at vest
Each year's equity vest value in the projection is included in gross wages and taxed as ordinary income per IRC §83 (IRS Publication 5992). We do not use the 22% supplemental withholding rate from IRS Pub. 15 — we estimate true liability with 2026 marginal brackets.
Stock growth is not a tax event
The Stock Growth % slider compounds the nominal vest value year over year. It models appreciation of already-vested or vesting RSU value for planning purposes. Actual tax on appreciation after vest is capital gains when you sell — not modeled in this annual income projection.
State tax changes on relocation
When you select the relocate path, after-tax income uses your destination state's income tax rules from the relocate year forward. Nine states have no broad-based income tax on wages (e.g. TX, FL, WA, TN). California's progressive rates can reduce take-home vs Texas at similar gross pay.
FICA on large vest years
Social Security tax applies at 6.2% up to the $184,500 wage base (2026, SSA). Medicare is 1.45% on all wages plus 0.9% Additional Medicare Tax above $200,000 for single filers. Large equity vest years in the projection can trigger Additional Medicare Tax.
How we calculate career path projections (formulas & methodology)
Every after-tax number uses our paycheck tax engine — the same federal, state, and FICA logic as our salary tax calculator. We apply 2026 federal brackets (IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32), state income tax, and FICA. Equity vests are ordinary income per IRC §83.
Market base salary for a level
Base_market = round(TypicalSalary × Industry_salaryMult × SkillMult × ExpFactor)
TypicalSalary comes from career ladder bands (L1–L8, M3–M7). SkillMult stacks ML/cloud/leadership premiums capped at 1.28. ExpFactor dampens growth at senior levels — early career (<5 YOE) gets up to 1.06× boost; senior levels reduce merit growth.
Starting base (year 1)
Base₁ = max(CurrentBase, 0.92 × Base_market)
We never start below your entered salary; if your pay is below market for the level, we lift toward 92% of market.
Merit raise (stay / relocate paths)
Base_y = round(Base_{y−1} × (1 + MeritPct × ExpFactor / 100))
MeritPct is industry-specific (FAANG 4%, mid-tech 3.5%, non-tech 3%, startup 2.5%). Applied every year on stay and relocate paths before promotion checks.
In-place promotion
Base_promo = max(Base × (1 + TypicalPromoRaisePct/100), 0.95 × Base_market_next)
Eligible when yearsAtLevel ≥ 2, attempted every even calendar year on stay/management/relocate paths. Promotion fires based on your probability slider (deterministic threshold, not random). New 4-year equity grant starts; grantYearsLeft resets to 4.
Job switch bump
On hop year y (y > 1, y mod interval = 0): Base = max(Market_next × 1.02, Base × HopMult); HopMult ∈ {1.20, 1.25 FAANG, 1.18 startup}
Job-hop interval is 2–8 years (default 3). Sign-on = round(12% × base) in hop year only. New equity grant at destination level. BLS reports median private-sector tenure of 3.5 years (Jan 2024) — a 2–3 year hop interval aligns with observed worker mobility.
Annual bonus
Bonus_y = round(Base_y × TypicalBonusPct / 100)
Bonus target % is level-specific (8% at L1 up to 22% at L8; management track uses 15–35%).
Annual equity vest
Equity_y = round((TypicalEquity4Yr × Industry_equityMult / 4) × (1 + StockGrowth/100)^{y−1})
Nominal grant vests 25%/yr over 4 years. StockGrowth compounds vest value (default 8%/yr). RSU vests are ordinary income at vest per IRC §83.
Equity refresh (non-hop paths)
Refresh add-on = round(TypicalEquity4Yr × Industry_equityMult × 0.25 × (1 + StockGrowth)^{y−1}) on even years after year 2
Models retention refreshes when grantYearsLeft reaches 0. Job-hop path gets fresh grants at each switch instead.
Management track pivot
At managementSwitchYear: level → M3 (or current M), Base = max(Base × 1.05, 0.95 × Base_market_M3)
IC track (L) and management track (M) are separate ladders — L8 does not auto-promote to M3.
Relocation COL adjustment
Base_reloc = round(Base × COL_mult); COL_mult = COL_destination / COL_origin (MERIC state averages, 100 = US avg)
State for after-tax switches at relocate year. Tax uses destination state rules from our paycheck tax engine from that year forward. For city-level COL, use our Relocation Salary Calculator.
Gross compensation per year
Gross_y = Base_y + Bonus_y + Equity_y + SignOn_y
SignOn is non-zero only in job-hop years (12% of base) or year-1 events you model elsewhere.
After-tax take-home
AfterTax_y = Gross_y − Federal_y − State_y − FICA_y
Computed with our paycheck tax engine — 2026 federal brackets, state income tax, Social Security, Medicare, and Additional Medicare Tax. Not the 22% supplemental withholding rate.
Horizon total
Total_horizon = Σ AfterTax_y for y = 1…H (H = 5–15)
Multi-path chart compares after-tax_y across stay, job_hop, management, and relocate strategies with identical starting inputs.
2026 tax parameters used in projections
| Federal income tax | 2026 brackets per IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32 |
| Standard deduction (single) | $16,100 |
| Social Security (employee) | 6.2% on wages up to $184,500 |
| Medicare (employee) | 1.45% on all wages |
| Additional Medicare Tax | 0.9% on wages above $200,000 (single) |
| Equity vest in projection | Ordinary wages at FMV on vest (IRC §83) |
| Withholding rate (not used here) | 22% flat supplemental on RSU vests per IRS Pub. 15 |
Official sources & references
Salary benchmarks reference BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics. Tax calculations reference IRS publications and SSA wage-base notices. Last updated 2026-06-09.
- IRS: IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32 — 2026 federal tax brackets & standard deduction
- IRS: IRS Pub. 15 (2026) — income tax withholding & FICA rates
- IRS: IRS Publication 5992 — taxation of RSUs at vest (IRC §83)
- Social Security Administration: SSA — 2026 Social Security wage base ($184,500)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: BLS OEWS — Software Developers wage percentiles (SOC 15-1252, May 2024)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: BLS Employee Tenure Summary — median 3.9 years with current employer (Jan 2024)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook — Software Developers (median $133,080, May 2024)
Frequently asked questions
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